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Changing Population · National

China

From the one-child policy to pro-natalist incentives inside a single generation.

How this page works

Six sections are filled in: the parts that are stable and factual. Four are yours — evidence, perspectives, evaluation and the current connection. Those four are where the marks are, and they are deliberately empty. A case study only counts once you have completed them.

↧ Download the China template Word · ready to fill in · the six given sections already completed
Before you write about this one

Attributing the fertility fall entirely to the policy is a common and costly error. Compare with countries that had no such policy.

§ 01

The ten-part record

01 · Location Filled in for you

People's Republic of China
35.9°N 104.2°E · scale: National

See this case in context on the case study map.

02 · Geographic context Filled in for you

A very large population that grew rapidly, was subject to the most far-reaching fertility restriction ever attempted, and is now ageing and beginning to decline. Policy has reversed direction entirely.

03 · Processes Filled in for you

What is changing here, and the mechanisms driving it.

  • State-directed fertility restriction and its enforcement
  • Rapid fertility decline, partly independent of policy
  • Sex-ratio distortion at birth
  • Ageing and the onset of population decline
04 · Evidence You build this

Find these, and write the year beside every figure. A statistic without a date is not evidence.

  • Total fertility rate before, during and after the policy
  • The year the population began to decline
  • Sex ratio at birth at its peak
  • Comparable fertility decline in a country with no such policy
Your figures go here
05 · Stakeholders Filled in for you

Who is affected, and separately, who holds the decision-making power.

  • Families subject to the policy and its penalties
  • The single-child generation now supporting ageing parents
  • The state, managing a shrinking workforce
  • Rural and urban households, treated differently under the policy

Named above as a starting list. For each one, add what they actually want, and note where two of them want incompatible things.

06 · Perspectives You build this

Find two sources that disagree about this case — not two summaries of the same view. Record who each is, what they claim, and what interest they have. A perspective without a holder is not a perspective.

Your notes go here
07 · Concepts Filled in for you

Which of the six apply here, and what each one reveals.

  • Power. The state as the direct agent of demographic change.
  • Possibility. Reversing policy has not reversed behaviour.
  • Process. Cause is contested: how much was policy, how much was development?
08 · Evaluation You build this

How significant is this? How effective was any response? What are the limitations of your evidence? What else could explain the pattern? Reach a judgement and defend it.

Your notes go here
09 · Current connection You build this

One dated development from the last twelve months. Does it strengthen, weaken or complicate the case as recorded above? Update this every time you revisit the case.

Your notes go here
10 · Exam use Filled in for you

Anti-natalist and pro-natalist policy, and the evaluation of both.

Now go and build the other four

Reading this page is not the same as having a case study. Take the template, find the evidence, and fill in sections 4, 6, 8 and 9 in your own words.

↧ Download the template Or take the blank version for a case of your own
§ 02

Where to look

Start here. Prefer the organisation that produced the data over anyone summarising it.

Links checked 27 August 2026 · external links open in a new tab

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